Trade War Escalates as China Strikes Back
You Can't Take Down the World's Largest Manufacturer So Easily
Chengyu of the Week: 奉陪到底 (Fèngpéi dàodǐ) - "to go along until the end."
In the context of international relations or politics, it conveys a strong and confident stance, indicating readiness to face any challenge or escalation fully.
US President Donald Trump dropped a tariff bomb last week, imposing at least 10% tariffs on almost the entire world—from China to the EU, and even the penguin inhabitants of the Heard and McDonald Islands.
While some, like the EU, opted for a more conciliatory approach to the tariffs, China has decided to fight back, imposing tariffs of its own and seeking other trading partners to fill the gap left by an increasingly isolationist US.
在中国宣布对美加征34%关税，作为美国对等关税的反击之后，川普7日扬言，要对从中国进口的产品再课50%——总计为104%的关税。
中国商务部表示，如果美方一意孤行，中方必将「奉陪到底」。它向世界发出了一个明确的信息：如果美国要打贸易战，中国已准备好应战。
对等关税 (duì děng guān shuì): Reciprocal tariffs
扬言 (yáng yán): To threaten; to declare aggressively
再课 (zài kè): To impose additional (tariffs or duties)
一意孤行 (yī yì gū xíng): To act willfully; to insist on doing things one's own way
奉陪到底 (fèng péi dào dǐ): To confront to the end; to accompany until the end
After China announced a 34% tariff on the U.S. as retaliation for U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Trump threatened on the 7th to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, bringing the total to 104%.
China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that if the U.S. insists on its actions, China will "fight to the end." It sent a clear message to the world: if the U.S. wants a trade war, China is ready to respond.
彭博经济研究院指出，川普的关税，再次为中国将自己塑造为「可靠的经济伙伴」打开了大门，而北京也渴望抓住这个机会。
对贸易流动和经济关系的分析发现，中国可能会调整大部分出口方向，以弥补其在美国失去的市场，就像川普发动第一次贸易战后中国所执行的策略。
「大多数国家将对美国出口减少，并从中国购买更多产品，」彭博预测。
塑造 (sù zào): To shape; to mold; to create
可靠 (kě kào): Reliable; dependable
渴望 (kě wàng): To long for; to yearn for
贸易流动 (mào yì liú dòng): Trade flow; movement of trade
弥补 (mí bǔ): To make up for; to compensate
执行 (zhí xíng): To execute; to carry out; to implement
Bloomberg Economic Research noted that Trump’s tariffs have reopened the door for China to position itself as a "reliable economic partner," an opportunity Beijing is eager to seize.
An analysis of trade flows and economic relationships found that China could redirect much of its exports to compensate for lost U.S. markets, similar to strategies it implemented after Trump’s first trade war.
"Most countries will reduce exports to the U.S. and purchase more products from China," Bloomberg predicted.
如果川普的104%关税生效，将推动中国企业向东南亚和其他地区出口更多产品，就像2018-19年首次贸易战后一样。当时，中国迅速崛起成为世界最大汽车出口国，就是一个例子。
据报道，习近平将于4月访问越南、马来西亚，和柬埔寨，这将巩固中国与三个被美国关税重创国家的关系。
崛起 (jué qǐ): To rise; to emerge
巩固 (gǒng gù): To consolidate; to strengthen
重创 (zhòng chuāng): To severely damage; to inflict heavy losses
If Trump’s 104% tariff goes into effect, it will drive Chinese companies to export more products to Southeast Asia and other regions, similar to the aftermath of the 2018-19 trade war. China’s rapid rise as the world’s largest car exporter during that period is an example.
Reports suggest Xi Jinping will visit Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia in April, strengthening ties with three countries hit hard by U.S. tariffs.
美国民主防御基金会高级研究员辛格尔顿（Craig Singleton）上周表示，「习近平的挑衅行为，有可能让两国领导人陷入升级的恶性循环，没有高层外交就意味着没有安全阀，」「拖得越久，双方就越难在不丢脸的情况下缓和局势。」
事实上，如果中国能够自行填补美国需求缺口，那么中国国内，乃至全球经济，就能稍稍摆脱美国需求消失的困境。
挑衅 (tiǎo xìn): To provoke; to incite
陷入 (xiàn rù): To fall into; to get caught in (a difficult situation)
恶性循环 (è xìng xún huán): Vicious cycle
安全阀 (ān quán fá): Safety valve
拖得 (tuō dé): To drag on; to delay
缓和局势 (huǎn hé jú shì): To ease tensions; to de-escalate a situation
Craig Singleton, a senior researcher at the U.S. Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated last week, "Xi Jinping’s provocative actions could trap the leaders of both countries in a vicious cycle of escalation. Without high-level diplomacy, there is no safety valve. The longer it drags on, the harder it will be for both sides to ease tensions without losing face."
In fact, if China can fill the gap left by U.S. demand, it could alleviate the domestic and global economic downturn caused by the disappearance of U.S. demand.
目前，中国政策制定者上周末在北京开会，讨论加快刺激消费的计划。习近平希望借助中国庞大的消费群来吸收国内的制造业产出，但还没有具体说明该怎么做。
汇丰亚洲首席经济学家诺伊曼（Frederic Neumann）总结，要以有意义的方式增加消费，中国必须对增长模式进行重大调整，「这是一项艰巨的经济、政治和意识形态任务，但它提供了一个独特的机会，让自由世界秩序得以运转，并夺取经济领导地位。」
政策制定者 (zhèng cè zhì dìng zhě): Policy makers
艰巨 (jiān jù): Arduous; difficult
秩序 (zhì xù): Order; discipline
Currently, Chinese policymakers met in Beijing last weekend to discuss plans to accelerate consumption stimulus. Xi Jinping hopes to harness China’s massive consumer base to absorb domestic manufacturing output, but specifics have yet to be outlined.
Frederic Neumann, HSBC Asia’s Chief Economist, concluded that to meaningfully boost consumption, China must make significant adjustments to its growth model. "This is a challenging economic, political, and ideological task, but it presents a unique opportunity for the free world order to function and seize economic leadership."
Do you think Trump's trade war will truly open the door for China to become the leader of the new world order?
Antoine & Dorota